Washington
The
Future of Omniscient Scenario-Planning Methodology, Today! By Mr.
Andres Agostini
This
is a personal yet summarized and copyrighted P.O.V. that is
professional, thorough and complete. This independent exploration is
based on 30 years of stern practical experience and expertise.
When
I was 25 I was fully introduced and indoctrinated on worldwide Royal
Dutch Shell's scenario-planning methodology by Shell's nationalized
company Maraven. That introduction and indoctrination came through
the kind deeds and executive decision of and by Maraven President,
Dr. Carlos Castillo and the high-ranking strategic planners under his
command.
The
view and application of scenario-planning methodology by Maraven, as
well as the several-weeks training to me, also included all
theoretical and practical quality-assurance and
continuous-improvement prescriptions by: Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Dr.
Joseph Juran, Mr. Bill Conway, U.S. Navy, Kaisen and Hitachi.
With
serious quality assurance and continuous improvement, one must
exercise (like in scenario-planning contexts) great foresight and
learning in advance in order to eliminate forthcoming "defects"
or "flaws," leaving leeway to countermeasure unknonwables.
All
of my Maraven training included all of the preceding. Maraven was a
created and an acculturated full-scope petroleum company by Shell and
then under the absolute tutelage and management control of
state-owned PDVSA (Citgo's parent company).
Maraven
was affluently thriving in worldwide markets while applying
scenario-planning methodology as it was exactly conceived, designed
and executed by Pierre Wack (an unconventional French oil executive
who was the first to develop the use of scenario planning in the
private sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the
1970s.)
Wack
is the father of scenario planning in the private sector. For more
details on this noted Guru, go to the Economist at
http://www.economist.com/node/12000502 .
Wack's
public writings are meager and kept under the intellectual ownership
of Shell. Wack's methodological heir was Honorable Mr. Peter
Schwartz, a previous Shell executive, the former Chairman of Global
Business Network (www.gbn.com) and author of the groundbreaking book
on scenario planning: "...The Art of the Long View: Planning for
the Future in an Uncertain World..." (ISBN-13: 978-1863160995).
Wack
and Schwartz are the greatest proponents of 3-scenario analysis. In
my case, I institute "...hazard scenario planning..." and
the number of plausible and implausible outputted thought-through
"outlooks" (scenarios) are only limited by the designated
budget by the Client.
I
am going to explain what "ouput" means in Systems
Engineering. You have the Systems Transformational "Box,"
throughputting (marshaling) from "known inputs" into
"desirable outputs" (from sustainable successful outcomes
into fiscally sound and continuous growth).
BUT,
FOR A LONG TIME UNTIL YEAR 1999, I HAD A REVOLVING QUESTION: WHERE
DOES THE EXACT AND MOST UNDERLYING GENESIS OF SCENARIO PLANNING
REALLY COME FROM? EXACTLY, WHAT IS THE OUTRIGHT ORIGIN? When I
study contemporary authors I always wonder if I can find the actual
"root" philosopher, scientist and thought leader that first
and originally brought about an idea, notion, maxim, theory, approach
or breakthrough.
For
instance, former U.S. Secretary of State and conspicuous American
self-help author Napoleon Hill got his first name and success tenets
after and from (respectively) Napoleon Bonaparte. I research the
works by the original ones first and then I might check out the works
by the contemporary versions afterward.
COMING
BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT MATTER, I finally founded out that scenario
planning was developed by the U.S. during the 1950's and while great
existential challenges were threatening the country's National
Security doctrine as a direct result of the Cold War (1947–1991).
In
consequence, I knew the exact and primordial, in-all-truth root and
understood that DoD (1789 - present), DARPA (1958 - present), NASA
(1958 - present) and Military-Industrial Complex (1961 - present) and
other agencies and private contractors (including Skunkworks ones)
were the founding fathers of advanced scenario-planning methodology.
Many
scientists and engineers worked extremely hard at it, including
NASA's Dr. Wernher von Braun[1] and the plethora of
elitist scientists collaborating with him. Elites can sometimes
serve the public interest at large handsomely. But the gravest
inflection point came by the Sputnik Crisis (also known as the
"Sputnik Moment," that is: a large Geo-strategic surprise).
Many companies go under because of the strategic surprises
inflicted by them either by smarter competitors or novel
technologies.
From
this point onward, one finds the salient research by RAND
Corporation's polymath futurist Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 –
July 7, 1983). To give you an idea on Kahn's intellectual mind-set
style, please check these clear-eyed assertions by him: “...I'm
against ignorance...I am against the whole cliché of the
moment...I'm against fashionable thinking...I'm against sloppy,
emotional thinking...” [2]
.
Comparatively
and interestingly enough, the United States Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld argued, "...Reports that say that something
hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know,
there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There
are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know
we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are
things we do not know we don't know..."
But
many years before the "... unknown unknowns..."
conjecture by Rumsfeld, Khan was the ultimate pioneer in
superseding "...the unthinkable..." This by Khan is
one of the pillars of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management
and The Future of Scientific Management, Today!
He
did offer a theoretical body and practical and downright mode of
approaching its theory. The most important global institutions of
the world, into profit or not, are into stern "the unthinkable"
discerning, beginning with those of us into advanced beyond-insurance
risk management and strategy.
Let's
explore Khan's background now. Wikipedia's citation [3] on
"...the unthinkable..." polymath futurist is extremely
educational. An excerpt of this citation indicates:
"...Herman
Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a founder of the Hudson
Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of
the twentieth century. He originally come to prominence as a military
strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND
Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of
nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making
him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's
classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove....Kahn's major
contributions were the several strategies he developed during the
Cold War to contemplate 'the unthinkable' – namely, nuclear warfare
– by using applications of game theory. ...Most notably, KAHN IS
OFTEN CITED AS THE FATHER OF SCENARIO PLANNING..."
CONCLUSIONS:
Given
all of the prior, I understand and summon the following:
1.-
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario
analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use
to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation
and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence,
government agencies and entities, NGOs, business enterprises and
supranationals. Nonetheless, scenario planning as per Wack and Khan
is breathtaking but in itself does not suffice in contemporary times.
2.-
Along with item “1.-” before, there is also the concomitant
application of 2.1.- Systems Theory, 2.2.- Game Theory, 2.3.-
Wargaming Theory and 2.4.- Many other modes of practical strategic
thinking and strategic execution. By example, Game Theory and
Wargaming Theory ─ both under the Systems Thinking Approach ─
are extremely well addressed by Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, PhD.
You
may wish to explored his book: “The Predictioneer's Game: Using the
Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future”
(ISBN-13: 978-0812979770).
To
me Napoleon Bonaparte is the greeters Systems Thinker ever beyond any
epic military campaign. If you are hesitant about it, please ask
systems engineers, physicists, other scholars and managers, as well
as prominent historians. 80% of the teaching by Bonaparte are taught
in all U.S. Military Academies. In my case and as per my own
experience, NASA-beloved Leonado Da Vinci's publications can be an
over-learning device for the radiant prepared-mind crafting lucid
scenarios irradiantly.
3.-
With “1.-” and “2.-” in place, there is also the application
of Compound Forecasting without the ruling out of the vast computing
calculation and transformation from narrative data into numerical
data.
I
have many professional reasons to state that I use 70% of Qualitative
Analytics and 30% of Quantitative Analytics. Algorithms don't
outsmart the biological brain yet. By year 2000, before the Dawn of
Strong Big Data, the Science Applications International Corporation
(SAIC) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown and me were experimenting with seizing an
optimal computerized reading pertaining to the “success-likelihood
ratio” of a major business initiative to be jointly launched by our
respective interests. This was another way of “futuring” that
resulted exceedingly interesting and educational back then.
4.-
In addition to all posited in “1.-”, “2.-” and “3.-”
above, it is, too, highly advisable the concurrent implementation of
other practical methodologies of and by 4.1.- Futures Studies and
4.2.- Foresight Research. There are several proprietary approaches
that cannot be disclosed here.
5.-
All numbered items above and in a rogue yet subtle search and
recursive exploration of the totality of the whole (by holistic
means), everything there must be seamlessly coalesced, integrated
and instituted in accordance with Systems Thinking with the Systemic
and Systematic Applied Omniscience Perspective as it is understood
both by Applied Engineers and Physicists. Said “Omniscience” as
it is chiefly understood by “Exact Science” Scientists.
All
stakeholders always institute all the approaches hereby in order to
avoid disruption potentials. One of the world's best and more
authoritative examples is NASA and everything by it. For decades,
NASA has been developing beyond-insurance risk management
technologies and services for its own initiatives, projects and
missions, as well as for august global corporations.
In
the Summer of 2013, an American group of oil-and-gas corporations
that operate globally asked NASA for a “...Space-Age Risk
Management...” service to them as it was made official in a NASA
own Press Release at
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/releases/2013/J13-014.html
Kindly
please remember that Risk Management is neither taking calculated
risks in Wall Streets (or any stock market), nor managing
“challenges” by insurance and reinsurance companies only.
Beyond-Insurance Risk Management is, in all actuality, OPTIMAL
MANAGEMENT PER SE to greatly exploit upsides and downsides before
they happen.
Ergo,
Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a proprietary
methodology to practically solved complicated and complex problems by
the targeted organization. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management or
“...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” is, by far
and by way of example, much more than Beyond-"...Sarbanes–Oxley
Act..." Risk Management.
You
see, “reinsurance” is a fancy term that equates to amount sums of
“...insurance purchased by and for insurance companies...” If
a tiny or gargantuan insurance company instituted Transformative and
Integrative Risk Management, said insurance company would not need at
all to buy any reinsurance “protection” or so-called “cover.”
6.-
There are many leading government agencies and entities, NGOs, global
corporations and supranationals that, since many years now, apply
everything above in parallel (simultaneously, cohesively and
congruently). This is, for instance, under universal application by
agencies and business enterprises into Aerospace and Defense.
Institutions
─ that I have worked with that make forceful efforts towards
avant-garde “scenario planing” and Transformative and
Integrative Risk Management ─ encompass: Toyota, Mitsubishi,
World Bank, Shell, Statoil, Total, Exxon, Mobil, PDVSA/Citgo, GE,
GMAC, TNT Express, GTE, Amoco, BP, Abbot Laboratories, World Health
Organization, Ernst Young Consulting, SAIC (Science Applications
International Corporation), Pak Mail, Wilpro Energy Services,
Phillips Petroleum Company, Dupont, Conoco, ENI (Italy’s petroleum
state-owned firm), Chevron, and LDG Management (HCC Benefits).
7.-
MANY PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS AND OTHER SCIENTISTS AND ENTREPRENEURS
HAVE FORMIDABLE NOTIONS AND FORESIGHTED IDEAS BUT GRAVELY LACK THE
DIRECT EXPERIENCE AND EMPIRIC YET PROVEN WOMB-TO-TOMB METHODS IN
PRAGMATICALLY MANAGING A DANGEROUS CORPORATE THEATER OF OPERATIONS
(FRAMEWORK).
To
find out more about relentless Scenario-Planning Methodology and
Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, you are most welcome
to consider the (republished by the Lifeboat Foundation and Forward
Metrics) interview at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC .
REFERENCES:
[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun
[2]
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/h/herman_kahn.html
[3]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn
Regards,
Mr.
Andres Agostini
Risk-Management
Futurist
and
Success Consultant
The
Future of Omniscient Scenario-Planning Methodology, Today! By Mr.
Andres Agostini
This
is a personal yet summarized and copyrighted P.O.V. that is
professional, thorough and complete. This independent exploration is
based on 30 years of stern practical experience and expertise.
When
I was 25 I was fully introduced and indoctrinated on worldwide Royal
Dutch Shell's scenario-planning methodology by Shell's nationalized
company Maraven. That introduction and indoctrination came through
the kind deeds and executive decision of and by Maraven President,
Dr. Carlos Castillo and the high-ranking strategic planners under his
command.
The
view and application of scenario-planning methodology by Maraven, as
well as the several-weeks training to me, also included all
theoretical and practical quality-assurance and
continuous-improvement prescriptions by: Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Dr.
Joseph Juran, Mr. Bill Conway, U.S. Navy, Kaisen and Hitachi.
With
serious quality assurance and continuous improvement, one must
exercise (like in scenario-planning contexts) great foresight and
learning in advance in order to eliminate forthcoming "defects"
or "flaws," leaving leeway to countermeasure unknonwables.
All
of my Maraven training included all of the preceding. Maraven was a
created and an acculturated full-scope petroleum company by Shell and
then under the absolute tutelage and management control of
state-owned PDVSA (Citgo's parent company).
Maraven
was affluently thriving in worldwide markets while applying
scenario-planning methodology as it was exactly conceived, designed
and executed by Pierre Wack (an unconventional French oil executive
who was the first to develop the use of scenario planning in the
private sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the
1970s.)
Wack
is the father of scenario planning in the private sector. For more
details on this noted Guru, go to the Economist at
http://www.economist.com/node/12000502 .
Wack's
public writings are meager and kept under the intellectual ownership
of Shell. Wack's methodological heir was Honorable Mr. Peter
Schwartz, a previous Shell executive, the former Chairman of Global
Business Network (www.gbn.com) and author of the groundbreaking book
on scenario planning: "...The Art of the Long View: Planning for
the Future in an Uncertain World..." (ISBN-13: 978-1863160995).
Wack
and Schwartz are the greatest proponents of 3-scenario analysis. In
my case, I institute "...hazard scenario planning..." and
the number of plausible and implausible outputted thought-through
"outlooks" (scenarios) are only limited by the designated
budget by the Client.
I
am going to explain what "ouput" means in Systems
Engineering. You have the Systems Transformational "Box,"
throughputting (marshaling) from "known inputs" into
"desirable outputs" (from sustainable successful outcomes
into fiscally sound and continuous growth).
BUT,
FOR A LONG TIME UNTIL YEAR 1999, I HAD A REVOLVING QUESTION: WHERE
DOES THE EXACT AND MOST UNDERLYING GENESIS OF SCENARIO PLANNING
REALLY COME FROM? EXACTLY, WHAT IS THE OUTRIGHT ORIGIN? When I
study contemporary authors I always wonder if I can find the actual
"root" philosopher, scientist and thought leader that first
and originally brought about an idea, notion, maxim, theory, approach
or breakthrough.
For
instance, former U.S. Secretary of State and conspicuous American
self-help author Napoleon Hill got his first name and success tenets
after and from (respectively) Napoleon Bonaparte. I research the
works by the original ones first and then I might check out the works
by the contemporary versions afterward.
COMING
BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT MATTER, I finally founded out that scenario
planning was developed by the U.S. during the 1950's and while great
existential challenges were threatening the country's National
Security doctrine as a direct result of the Cold War (1947–1991).
In
consequence, I knew the exact and primordial, in-all-truth root and
understood that DoD (1789 - present), DARPA (1958 - present), NASA
(1958 - present) and Military-Industrial Complex (1961 - present) and
other agencies and private contractors (including Skunkworks ones)
were the founding fathers of advanced scenario-planning methodology.
Many
scientists and engineers worked extremely hard at it, including
NASA's Dr. Wernher von Braun[1] and the plethora of
elitist scientists collaborating with him. Elites can sometimes
serve the public interest at large handsomely. But the gravest
inflection point came by the Sputnik Crisis (also known as the
"Sputnik Moment," that is: a large Geo-strategic surprise).
Many companies go under because of the strategic surprises
inflicted by them either by smarter competitors or novel
technologies.
From
this point onward, one finds the salient research by RAND
Corporation's polymath futurist Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 –
July 7, 1983). To give you an idea on Kahn's intellectual mind-set
style, please check these clear-eyed assertions by him: “...I'm
against ignorance...I am against the whole cliché of the
moment...I'm against fashionable thinking...I'm against sloppy,
emotional thinking...” [2]
.
Comparatively
and interestingly enough, the United States Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld argued, "...Reports that say that something
hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know,
there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There
are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know
we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are
things we do not know we don't know..."
But
many years before the "... unknown unknowns..."
conjecture by Rumsfeld, Khan was the ultimate pioneer in
superseding "...the unthinkable..." This by Khan is
one of the pillars of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management
and The Future of Scientific Management, Today!
He
did offer a theoretical body and practical and downright mode of
approaching its theory. The most important global institutions of
the world, into profit or not, are into stern "the unthinkable"
discerning, beginning with those of us into advanced beyond-insurance
risk management and strategy.
Let's
explore Khan's background now. Wikipedia's citation [3] on
"...the unthinkable..." polymath futurist is extremely
educational. An excerpt of this citation indicates:
"...Herman
Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a founder of the Hudson
Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of
the twentieth century. He originally come to prominence as a military
strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND
Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of
nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making
him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's
classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove....Kahn's major
contributions were the several strategies he developed during the
Cold War to contemplate 'the unthinkable' – namely, nuclear warfare
– by using applications of game theory. ...Most notably, KAHN IS
OFTEN CITED AS THE FATHER OF SCENARIO PLANNING..."
CONCLUSIONS:
Given
all of the prior, I understand and summon the following:
1.-
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario
analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use
to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation
and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence,
government agencies and entities, NGOs, business enterprises and
supranationals. Nonetheless, scenario planning as per Wack and Khan
is breathtaking but in itself does not suffice in contemporary times.
2.-
Along with item “1.-” before, there is also the concomitant
application of 2.1.- Systems Theory, 2.2.- Game Theory, 2.3.-
Wargaming Theory and 2.4.- Many other modes of practical strategic
thinking and strategic execution. By example, Game Theory and
Wargaming Theory ─ both under the Systems Thinking Approach ─
are extremely well addressed by Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, PhD.
You
may wish to explored his book: “The Predictioneer's Game: Using the
Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future”
(ISBN-13: 978-0812979770).
To
me Napoleon Bonaparte is the greeters Systems Thinker ever beyond any
epic military campaign. If you are hesitant about it, please ask
systems engineers, physicists, other scholars and managers, as well
as prominent historians. 80% of the teaching by Bonaparte are taught
in all U.S. Military Academies. In my case and as per my own
experience, NASA-beloved Leonado Da Vinci's publications can be an
over-learning device for the radiant prepared-mind crafting lucid
scenarios irradiantly.
3.-
With “1.-” and “2.-” in place, there is also the application
of Compound Forecasting without the ruling out of the vast computing
calculation and transformation from narrative data into numerical
data.
I
have many professional reasons to state that I use 70% of Qualitative
Analytics and 30% of Quantitative Analytics. Algorithms don't
outsmart the biological brain yet. By year 2000, before the Dawn of
Strong Big Data, the Science Applications International Corporation
(SAIC) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown and me were experimenting with seizing an
optimal computerized reading pertaining to the “success-likelihood
ratio” of a major business initiative to be jointly launched by our
respective interests. This was another way of “futuring” that
resulted exceedingly interesting and educational back then.
4.-
In addition to all posited in “1.-”, “2.-” and “3.-”
above, it is, too, highly advisable the concurrent implementation of
other practical methodologies of and by 4.1.- Futures Studies and
4.2.- Foresight Research. There are several proprietary approaches
that cannot be disclosed here.
5.-
All numbered items above and in a rogue yet subtle search and
recursive exploration of the totality of the whole (by holistic
means), everything there must be seamlessly coalesced, integrated
and instituted in accordance with Systems Thinking with the Systemic
and Systematic Applied Omniscience Perspective as it is understood
both by Applied Engineers and Physicists. Said “Omniscience” as
it is chiefly understood by “Exact Science” Scientists.
All
stakeholders always institute all the approaches hereby in order to
avoid disruption potentials. One of the world's best and more
authoritative examples is NASA and everything by it. For decades,
NASA has been developing beyond-insurance risk management
technologies and services for its own initiatives, projects and
missions, as well as for august global corporations.
In
the Summer of 2013, an American group of oil-and-gas corporations
that operate globally asked NASA for a “...Space-Age Risk
Management...” service to them as it was made official in a NASA
own Press Release at
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/releases/2013/J13-014.html
Kindly
please remember that Risk Management is neither taking calculated
risks in Wall Streets (or any stock market), nor managing
“challenges” by insurance and reinsurance companies only.
Beyond-Insurance Risk Management is, in all actuality, OPTIMAL
MANAGEMENT PER SE to greatly exploit upsides and downsides before
they happen.
Ergo,
Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a proprietary
methodology to practically solved complicated and complex problems by
the targeted organization. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management or
“...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” is, by far
and by way of example, much more than Beyond-"...Sarbanes–Oxley
Act..." Risk Management.
You
see, “reinsurance” is a fancy term that equates to amount sums of
“...insurance purchased by and for insurance companies...” If
a tiny or gargantuan insurance company instituted Transformative and
Integrative Risk Management, said insurance company would not need at
all to buy any reinsurance “protection” or so-called “cover.”
6.-
There are many leading government agencies and entities, NGOs, global
corporations and supranationals that, since many years now, apply
everything above in parallel (simultaneously, cohesively and
congruently). This is, for instance, under universal application by
agencies and business enterprises into Aerospace and Defense.
Institutions
─ that I have worked with that make forceful efforts towards
avant-garde “scenario planing” and Transformative and
Integrative Risk Management ─ encompass: Toyota, Mitsubishi,
World Bank, Shell, Statoil, Total, Exxon, Mobil, PDVSA/Citgo, GE,
GMAC, TNT Express, GTE, Amoco, BP, Abbot Laboratories, World Health
Organization, Ernst Young Consulting, SAIC (Science Applications
International Corporation), Pak Mail, Wilpro Energy Services,
Phillips Petroleum Company, Dupont, Conoco, ENI (Italy’s petroleum
state-owned firm), Chevron, and LDG Management (HCC Benefits).
7.-
MANY PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS AND OTHER SCIENTISTS AND ENTREPRENEURS
HAVE FORMIDABLE NOTIONS AND FORESIGHTED IDEAS BUT GRAVELY LACK THE
DIRECT EXPERIENCE AND EMPIRIC YET PROVEN WOMB-TO-TOMB METHODS IN
PRAGMATICALLY MANAGING A DANGEROUS CORPORATE THEATER OF OPERATIONS
(FRAMEWORK).
To
find out more about relentless Scenario-Planning Methodology and
Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, you are most welcome
to consider the (republished by the Lifeboat Foundation and Forward
Metrics) interview at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC .
REFERENCES:
[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun
[2]
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/h/herman_kahn.html
[3]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn
Regards,
Mr.
Andres Agostini
Risk-Management
Futurist
and
Success Consultant
The
Future of Omniscient Scenario-Planning Methodology, Today! By Mr.
Andres Agostini
This
is a personal yet summarized and copyrighted P.O.V. that is
professional, thorough and complete. This independent exploration is
based on 30 years of stern practical experience and expertise.
When
I was 25 I was fully introduced and indoctrinated on worldwide Royal
Dutch Shell's scenario-planning methodology by Shell's nationalized
company Maraven. That introduction and indoctrination came through
the kind deeds and executive decision of and by Maraven President,
Dr. Carlos Castillo and the high-ranking strategic planners under his
command.
The
view and application of scenario-planning methodology by Maraven, as
well as the several-weeks training to me, also included all
theoretical and practical quality-assurance and
continuous-improvement prescriptions by: Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Dr.
Joseph Juran, Mr. Bill Conway, U.S. Navy, Kaisen and Hitachi.
With
serious quality assurance and continuous improvement, one must
exercise (like in scenario-planning contexts) great foresight and
learning in advance in order to eliminate forthcoming "defects"
or "flaws," leaving leeway to countermeasure unknonwables.
All
of my Maraven training included all of the preceding. Maraven was a
created and an acculturated full-scope petroleum company by Shell and
then under the absolute tutelage and management control of
state-owned PDVSA (Citgo's parent company).
Maraven
was affluently thriving in worldwide markets while applying
scenario-planning methodology as it was exactly conceived, designed
and executed by Pierre Wack (an unconventional French oil executive
who was the first to develop the use of scenario planning in the
private sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the
1970s.)
Wack
is the father of scenario planning in the private sector. For more
details on this noted Guru, go to the Economist at
http://www.economist.com/node/12000502 .
Wack's
public writings are meager and kept under the intellectual ownership
of Shell. Wack's methodological heir was Honorable Mr. Peter
Schwartz, a previous Shell executive, the former Chairman of Global
Business Network (www.gbn.com) and author of the groundbreaking book
on scenario planning: "...The Art of the Long View: Planning for
the Future in an Uncertain World..." (ISBN-13: 978-1863160995).
Wack
and Schwartz are the greatest proponents of 3-scenario analysis. In
my case, I institute "...hazard scenario planning..." and
the number of plausible and implausible outputted thought-through
"outlooks" (scenarios) are only limited by the designated
budget by the Client.
I
am going to explain what "ouput" means in Systems
Engineering. You have the Systems Transformational "Box,"
throughputting (marshaling) from "known inputs" into
"desirable outputs" (from sustainable successful outcomes
into fiscally sound and continuous growth).
BUT,
FOR A LONG TIME UNTIL YEAR 1999, I HAD A REVOLVING QUESTION: WHERE
DOES THE EXACT AND MOST UNDERLYING GENESIS OF SCENARIO PLANNING
REALLY COME FROM? EXACTLY, WHAT IS THE OUTRIGHT ORIGIN? When I
study contemporary authors I always wonder if I can find the actual
"root" philosopher, scientist and thought leader that first
and originally brought about an idea, notion, maxim, theory, approach
or breakthrough.
For
instance, former U.S. Secretary of State and conspicuous American
self-help author Napoleon Hill got his first name and success tenets
after and from (respectively) Napoleon Bonaparte. I research the
works by the original ones first and then I might check out the works
by the contemporary versions afterward.
COMING
BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT MATTER, I finally founded out that scenario
planning was developed by the U.S. during the 1950's and while great
existential challenges were threatening the country's National
Security doctrine as a direct result of the Cold War (1947–1991).
In
consequence, I knew the exact and primordial, in-all-truth root and
understood that DoD (1789 - present), DARPA (1958 - present), NASA
(1958 - present) and Military-Industrial Complex (1961 - present) and
other agencies and private contractors (including Skunkworks ones)
were the founding fathers of advanced scenario-planning methodology.
Many
scientists and engineers worked extremely hard at it, including
NASA's Dr. Wernher von Braun[1] and the plethora of
elitist scientists collaborating with him. Elites can sometimes
serve the public interest at large handsomely. But the gravest
inflection point came by the Sputnik Crisis (also known as the
"Sputnik Moment," that is: a large Geo-strategic surprise).
Many companies go under because of the strategic surprises
inflicted by them either by smarter competitors or novel
technologies.
From
this point onward, one finds the salient research by RAND
Corporation's polymath futurist Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 –
July 7, 1983). To give you an idea on Kahn's intellectual mind-set
style, please check these clear-eyed assertions by him: “...I'm
against ignorance...I am against the whole cliché of the
moment...I'm against fashionable thinking...I'm against sloppy,
emotional thinking...” [2]
.
Comparatively
and interestingly enough, the United States Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld argued, "...Reports that say that something
hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know,
there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There
are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know
we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are
things we do not know we don't know..."
But
many years before the "... unknown unknowns..."
conjecture by Rumsfeld, Khan was the ultimate pioneer in
superseding "...the unthinkable..." This by Khan is
one of the pillars of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management
and The Future of Scientific Management, Today!
He
did offer a theoretical body and practical and downright mode of
approaching its theory. The most important global institutions of
the world, into profit or not, are into stern "the unthinkable"
discerning, beginning with those of us into advanced beyond-insurance
risk management and strategy.
Let's
explore Khan's background now. Wikipedia's citation [3] on
"...the unthinkable..." polymath futurist is extremely
educational. An excerpt of this citation indicates:
"...Herman
Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a founder of the Hudson
Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of
the twentieth century. He originally come to prominence as a military
strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND
Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of
nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making
him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's
classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove....Kahn's major
contributions were the several strategies he developed during the
Cold War to contemplate 'the unthinkable' – namely, nuclear warfare
– by using applications of game theory. ...Most notably, KAHN IS
OFTEN CITED AS THE FATHER OF SCENARIO PLANNING..."
CONCLUSIONS:
Given
all of the prior, I understand and summon the following:
1.-
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario
analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use
to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation
and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence,
government agencies and entities, NGOs, business enterprises and
supranationals. Nonetheless, scenario planning as per Wack and Khan
is breathtaking but in itself does not suffice in contemporary times.
2.-
Along with item “1.-” before, there is also the concomitant
application of 2.1.- Systems Theory, 2.2.- Game Theory, 2.3.-
Wargaming Theory and 2.4.- Many other modes of practical strategic
thinking and strategic execution. By example, Game Theory and
Wargaming Theory ─ both under the Systems Thinking Approach ─
are extremely well addressed by Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, PhD.
You
may wish to explored his book: “The Predictioneer's Game: Using the
Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future”
(ISBN-13: 978-0812979770).
To
me Napoleon Bonaparte is the greeters Systems Thinker ever beyond any
epic military campaign. If you are hesitant about it, please ask
systems engineers, physicists, other scholars and managers, as well
as prominent historians. 80% of the teaching by Bonaparte are taught
in all U.S. Military Academies. In my case and as per my own
experience, NASA-beloved Leonado Da Vinci's publications can be an
over-learning device for the radiant prepared-mind crafting lucid
scenarios irradiantly.
3.-
With “1.-” and “2.-” in place, there is also the application
of Compound Forecasting without the ruling out of the vast computing
calculation and transformation from narrative data into numerical
data.
I
have many professional reasons to state that I use 70% of Qualitative
Analytics and 30% of Quantitative Analytics. Algorithms don't
outsmart the biological brain yet. By year 2000, before the Dawn of
Strong Big Data, the Science Applications International Corporation
(SAIC) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown and me were experimenting with seizing an
optimal computerized reading pertaining to the “success-likelihood
ratio” of a major business initiative to be jointly launched by our
respective interests. This was another way of “futuring” that
resulted exceedingly interesting and educational back then.
4.-
In addition to all posited in “1.-”, “2.-” and “3.-”
above, it is, too, highly advisable the concurrent implementation of
other practical methodologies of and by 4.1.- Futures Studies and
4.2.- Foresight Research. There are several proprietary approaches
that cannot be disclosed here.
5.-
All numbered items above and in a rogue yet subtle search and
recursive exploration of the totality of the whole (by holistic
means), everything there must be seamlessly coalesced, integrated
and instituted in accordance with Systems Thinking with the Systemic
and Systematic Applied Omniscience Perspective as it is understood
both by Applied Engineers and Physicists. Said “Omniscience” as
it is chiefly understood by “Exact Science” Scientists.
All
stakeholders always institute all the approaches hereby in order to
avoid disruption potentials. One of the world's best and more
authoritative examples is NASA and everything by it. For decades,
NASA has been developing beyond-insurance risk management
technologies and services for its own initiatives, projects and
missions, as well as for august global corporations.
In
the Summer of 2013, an American group of oil-and-gas corporations
that operate globally asked NASA for a “...Space-Age Risk
Management...” service to them as it was made official in a NASA
own Press Release at
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/releases/2013/J13-014.html
Kindly
please remember that Risk Management is neither taking calculated
risks in Wall Streets (or any stock market), nor managing
“challenges” by insurance and reinsurance companies only.
Beyond-Insurance Risk Management is, in all actuality, OPTIMAL
MANAGEMENT PER SE to greatly exploit upsides and downsides before
they happen.
Ergo,
Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a proprietary
methodology to practically solved complicated and complex problems by
the targeted organization. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management or
“...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” is, by far
and by way of example, much more than Beyond-"...Sarbanes–Oxley
Act..." Risk Management.
You
see, “reinsurance” is a fancy term that equates to amount sums of
“...insurance purchased by and for insurance companies...” If
a tiny or gargantuan insurance company instituted Transformative and
Integrative Risk Management, said insurance company would not need at
all to buy any reinsurance “protection” or so-called “cover.”
6.-
There are many leading government agencies and entities, NGOs, global
corporations and supranationals that, since many years now, apply
everything above in parallel (simultaneously, cohesively and
congruently). This is, for instance, under universal application by
agencies and business enterprises into Aerospace and Defense.
Institutions
─ that I have worked with that make forceful efforts towards
avant-garde “scenario planing” and Transformative and
Integrative Risk Management ─ encompass: Toyota, Mitsubishi,
World Bank, Shell, Statoil, Total, Exxon, Mobil, PDVSA/Citgo, GE,
GMAC, TNT Express, GTE, Amoco, BP, Abbot Laboratories, World Health
Organization, Ernst Young Consulting, SAIC (Science Applications
International Corporation), Pak Mail, Wilpro Energy Services,
Phillips Petroleum Company, Dupont, Conoco, ENI (Italy’s petroleum
state-owned firm), Chevron, and LDG Management (HCC Benefits).
7.-
MANY PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS AND OTHER SCIENTISTS AND ENTREPRENEURS
HAVE FORMIDABLE NOTIONS AND FORESIGHTED IDEAS BUT GRAVELY LACK THE
DIRECT EXPERIENCE AND EMPIRIC YET PROVEN WOMB-TO-TOMB METHODS IN
PRAGMATICALLY MANAGING A DANGEROUS CORPORATE THEATER OF OPERATIONS
(FRAMEWORK).
To
find out more about relentless Scenario-Planning Methodology and
Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, you are most welcome
to consider the (republished by the Lifeboat Foundation and Forward
Metrics) interview at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC .
REFERENCES:
[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun
[2]
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/h/herman_kahn.html
[3]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn
Regards,
Mr.
Andres Agostini
Risk-Management
Futurist
and
Success Consultant
http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC
(¯`*• Global Source and/or more resources at http://goo.gl/zvSV7 │ www.Future-Observatory.blogspot.com and on LinkeIn Group's "Becoming Aware of the Futures" at http://goo.gl/8qKBbK │ @SciCzar │ Point of Contact: www.linkedin.com/in/AndresAgostini
