Washington
Ray Kurzweil Talks About 'Singularity' and Theory's Critics
Ray Kurzweil believes computers will soon think like humans and ultimately merge with us, a notion he has dubbed "the singularity."
That idea persuaded the former inventor in 2007 to form Singularity University, an institution housed at the NASA Research Park on Moffett Field in Mountain View, which teaches students about artificial intelligence and other topics straight out of science fiction.
While the institution isn't accredited and offers short programs rather than a four-year degree, it has attracted lecturers and advisers such as Autodesk Inc. Chief Executive Carl Bass and Google Inc. Chief Internet Evangelist Vint Cerf. The notion of the singularity previously spawned the Singularity Institute, an artificial-intelligence research group in San Francisco.
Mr. Kurzweil's artificial-intelligence theories have made him something of a lightning rod among Silicon Valley technologists. He draws praise and funding from the likes of Google co-founder and CEO Larry Page and investor Peter Thiel. But others such as Microsoft Corp. co-founder Paul Allen and Lotus 1-2-3 designer Mitch Kapor dismiss Mr. Kurzweil's ideas, arguing, in part, that the way humans process information may not be analogous to how computers do so—which means human consciousness can't necessarily be reproduced digitally.
Mr. Kurzweil, 64 years old, who lives in the suburbs of Boston and regularly travels to the Bay Area for his work at the university and institute, discussed his predictions and his status as a polarizing figure in a recent interview:
WSJ: There are plenty of universities in the Bay Area that teach computer science, neuroscience, all the fields you're exploring at Singularity University. What kind of gap does Singularity University fill?
Mr. Kurzweil: There are lots of universities that teach this subject matter in a traditional way—basically, looking at the current state of knowledge. Singularity University is really devoted to understanding the phenomenon of exponential growth and how that is transforming one field after another. Computation and communication are obvious ones, but biology, health and medicine are others. The point is that health and medicine are now information technologies, and once an area becomes an information technology it progresses exponentially and not linearly.
The other key difference is that the students learn primarily through learning: The students self-organize into teams and take on some world challenge and start a project intended to last a long time. One project is to provide inexpensive housing for the developing world by building houses Lego-style using three-dimensional printing.
WSJ: What do you expect the most prominent companies in Silicon Valley to be making in 20 years?
Mr. Kurzweil: There are several different fields that are quite revolutionary. One area is biotechnology—technologies to really change the information processes underlying our bodies to program our bodies away from diseases and aging. You and I are walking around with outdated technology in our bodies. Twenty years from now, we'll really have a way to radically change those processes.
Another area is artificial intelligence. Twenty years from now you won't have to ask computers for help. The computer will be listening in on you and determining what you need. And we'll have virtual reality—you and I could have sat together in a virtual living room or taken a virtual walk on a Mediterranean beach.
WSJ: You have some famous proponents in the Bay Area, but you also have some vocal critics like Mitch Kapor and Paul Allen. Can you respond to the idea that the brain's workings are so different from that of a computer that they would be impossible to simulate?
Mr. Kurzweil: My critics are thinking linearly and imagining continued linear progress, but that's not true. [Progress will be] exponential: It makes an enormous difference. People also say the brain is too complex. Well, it's a complicated area, but there's a tremendous amount of redundancy—the complexity is more apparent than real. It's a level of complexity that we can handle.
WSJ: Where is the most interesting artificial-intelligence research taking place?
Mr. Kurzweil:This type of research is being done all over the world.The most sophisticated is being done in the United States, most significantly in Silicon Valley. Larry Page has a strong personal interest in AI. Search engines are going to understand what you mean and not just look at words. Look at Watson [the IBM computer that won Jeopardy]. It dealt with questions that were extremely subtle, dealt with puns, innuendo and metaphors.
Read more: http://goo.gl/cP5Z2
Ray Kurzweil believes computers will soon think like humans and ultimately merge with us, a notion he has dubbed "the singularity."
That idea persuaded the former inventor in 2007 to form Singularity University, an institution housed at the NASA Research Park on Moffett Field in Mountain View, which teaches students about artificial intelligence and other topics straight out of science fiction.
While the institution isn't accredited and offers short programs rather than a four-year degree, it has attracted lecturers and advisers such as Autodesk Inc. Chief Executive Carl Bass and Google Inc. Chief Internet Evangelist Vint Cerf. The notion of the singularity previously spawned the Singularity Institute, an artificial-intelligence research group in San Francisco.
Mr. Kurzweil's artificial-intelligence theories have made him something of a lightning rod among Silicon Valley technologists. He draws praise and funding from the likes of Google co-founder and CEO Larry Page and investor Peter Thiel. But others such as Microsoft Corp. co-founder Paul Allen and Lotus 1-2-3 designer Mitch Kapor dismiss Mr. Kurzweil's ideas, arguing, in part, that the way humans process information may not be analogous to how computers do so—which means human consciousness can't necessarily be reproduced digitally.
Mr. Kurzweil, 64 years old, who lives in the suburbs of Boston and regularly travels to the Bay Area for his work at the university and institute, discussed his predictions and his status as a polarizing figure in a recent interview:
WSJ: There are plenty of universities in the Bay Area that teach computer science, neuroscience, all the fields you're exploring at Singularity University. What kind of gap does Singularity University fill?
Mr. Kurzweil: There are lots of universities that teach this subject matter in a traditional way—basically, looking at the current state of knowledge. Singularity University is really devoted to understanding the phenomenon of exponential growth and how that is transforming one field after another. Computation and communication are obvious ones, but biology, health and medicine are others. The point is that health and medicine are now information technologies, and once an area becomes an information technology it progresses exponentially and not linearly.
The other key difference is that the students learn primarily through learning: The students self-organize into teams and take on some world challenge and start a project intended to last a long time. One project is to provide inexpensive housing for the developing world by building houses Lego-style using three-dimensional printing.
WSJ: What do you expect the most prominent companies in Silicon Valley to be making in 20 years?
Mr. Kurzweil: There are several different fields that are quite revolutionary. One area is biotechnology—technologies to really change the information processes underlying our bodies to program our bodies away from diseases and aging. You and I are walking around with outdated technology in our bodies. Twenty years from now, we'll really have a way to radically change those processes.
Another area is artificial intelligence. Twenty years from now you won't have to ask computers for help. The computer will be listening in on you and determining what you need. And we'll have virtual reality—you and I could have sat together in a virtual living room or taken a virtual walk on a Mediterranean beach.
WSJ: You have some famous proponents in the Bay Area, but you also have some vocal critics like Mitch Kapor and Paul Allen. Can you respond to the idea that the brain's workings are so different from that of a computer that they would be impossible to simulate?
Mr. Kurzweil: My critics are thinking linearly and imagining continued linear progress, but that's not true. [Progress will be] exponential: It makes an enormous difference. People also say the brain is too complex. Well, it's a complicated area, but there's a tremendous amount of redundancy—the complexity is more apparent than real. It's a level of complexity that we can handle.
WSJ: Where is the most interesting artificial-intelligence research taking place?
Mr. Kurzweil:This type of research is being done all over the world.The most sophisticated is being done in the United States, most significantly in Silicon Valley. Larry Page has a strong personal interest in AI. Search engines are going to understand what you mean and not just look at words. Look at Watson [the IBM computer that won Jeopardy]. It dealt with questions that were extremely subtle, dealt with puns, innuendo and metaphors.
Read more: http://goo.gl/cP5Z2
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